PUBLIC OPINION
Public opinion:
politically relevant opinions held by ordinary citizens that they express
openly. Political socialization: the process by which individuals acquire
their political opinions. Political culture refers to the
characteristic and deep-seated beliefs of a particular people about government
and politics. Americans are unusually committed to “liberty, equality, and
self-government”. Most people’s political beliefs are formed in childhood from
their parents. Political socialization is cumulative: people’s beliefs affect
how information is interpreted. Political socialization takes place through
agents of socialization.
Primary agents interact closely and regularly usually early in life.
Children place trust in what their parents say, thus, many adults today are
Republicans or Democrats wholly because their parents were the same. Schools
often emphasize America’s greatest moments. Schools in the US open with The
Pledge of Allegiance, where students pledge their national loyalty. Although
not a majority, many children attend church regularly, which can shape beliefs
about society’s obligations to the poor and unborn.
Secondary agents have a less intimate connection and usually have a
larger effect later in life. The media has an agenda-setting effect,
where people tend to believe topics emphasized by the media are the most
important. People in authority are sources of opinion (George bush on attacking
Afghanistan after 911)
Frames of reference are important because they 1) offer an
indication of how people think politically and 2) provide a common cause, which
can result in strength in numbers. Frames of reference include party
identification and political ideology. Party
Identification refers to a person’s ingrained sense of loyalty to a
political party. Most self-described independents have a partisan tendency. Younger
people are most likely to switch loyalties, which can happen in the context of
momentous upheaval (increase in Democrats in response to the New Deal). Selective
perception is the process whereby people selectively choose from incoming
information points that support what they already believe. The Democratic Party
has supported social welfare and workers’ rights policies, and has many union
workers supporting it. The Republican Party has supported pro-business and
tax-reduction policies, and has many people in business supporting it. Democrats
are more likely to support government assistance for the poor, toughening
environmental laws. Republicans are more likely to oppose same-sex marriage and
support strengthening the military.
People have a political ideology if they hold to a coherent
set of beliefs. Farmers do not have a true political ideology because they tend
to oppose assistance to the economically vulnerable unless they are the
recipients. A looser definition applies to more Americans. Economic liberals
believe the government should play a substantial role in the distribution of
economic benefits, working to make sure the less advantaged get a fair share of
society’s wealth. Economic conservatives believe the government should leave
the distribution of economic benefits alone. Social liberals would leave
lifestyle choices to the individual (same-sex marriage, abortion, school
prayer, criminal justice). Social conservatives use the government to promote
traditional values. A libertarian is economically conservative but
socially liberal. A populist is economically liberal but socially
conservative. When the US economy went into a recession in 2008, many motor
Americans said in polls that they wanted government assistance to the
economically disadvantaged. When Ronald Reagan was in office, many more people
supported leaving the economy alone.
Group Orientation
Religion
Fundamentalist and Roman Catholics tend to oppose abortion, while
Protestants and Jews are pro-choice. Catholics and Jews tend to support poverty
programs, while Protestants and Jews believe more in self-reliance. The religious
right consists of Christians who believe that the Bible is an infallible truth;
they thus have very differing opinions from the rest of population as a whole.
Economic Class
Lower-income Americans are more likely to support welfare assistance
programs and business regulation. Higher-income Americans are ore supportive of
tax cuts. People with similar incomes but different occupations do not share
the same views. Support for collective bargaining is higher among factory
workers than other people of the same income. However, labor unions have become
less supportive of Democrats in recent years due to their failure to help pass
collective bargaining legislation.
Region
For a period in U.S. history, the North and South were divided over
the issues of race and states’ rights. Regional differences continue to exist
on some issues, including social welfare and civil rights. Red states
(Republican bastions) are clustered in the South, Great Plains, and Rocky
Mountains. Blue states are (Democratic bastions) are found mostly in the
Northeast, the northern Midwest, and the West Coast.
Race and Ethnicity
Blacks and Hispanics are more supportive of affirmative action and
less trusting of police and the judicial system than are non-Hispanic whites.
Blacks are also more likely to request economic assistance programs, although
this relates to income and education levels.
Gender
Women differ with men by about 10 percentage points on support for
affirmative action. Women care more about social welfare issues. Women tend to
have more liberal opinions on these issues, because of their greater economic
vulnerability and their greater role in childcare. Women were 20% more likely
than men to favor spending on public education. Men are more likely than women
to support the use of military force (Iraq and Afghanistan).
Generations and Age
Americans who came of age during WWII have a greater sense of civic
duty than any other American generation that came before or since. Americans
who came of age during the Vietnam War were more distrustful of the government.
Americans of different ages respond differently to age-related policies
(younger people support increased education spending more than older people).
The Measurement of Public Opinion
In a public opinion poll, relatively few individuals — the sample
— are interviewed in order to estimate the opinions of a whole population.
If residents are chosen at random from a population, their opinions will
approximate those of the population as a whole. The size of the sample matters
in determining the accuracy of the estimates. The degree to which a sample
estimates might differ from what the population actually thinks is the
sampling error. A properly drawn study of about 1000 individuals has a
sampling error of roughly plus or minus 3 percent. In 1936 the Gallup
Organization stopped polling several weeks before the 1948 election and missed
a later voter shift that led Harry Truman to victory. Problems with polls. Some
Americans do not have phones, and some Americans will not be at home when called
or refuse to participate. Sometimes respondents may answer questions on
unfamiliar issues to appear uninformed — these are labeled “non-opinions”. Interviewees
will sometimes give what they view as the “socially appropriate response”:
although voter turnout rarely exceeds 60%, 75% or more of respondents will
claim they have voted. The “Bradley effect”: tendency for a black candidate to
receive fewer votes than the polls predict (although things have improved —
Obama). Question order and wording can also affect poll results.
The Influence of Public Opinion on Policy
Some believe that the government should take into account the
opinions the public holds. Others argue that public opinion is too whimsical
and uninformed to form the basis of a sound government. Public opinion is
mostly seen as strongly affecting policymakers, although it varies across
situations and issues. There are limits on the public’s influence: Americans
tend to want a balanced federal budget, yet they are not supportive of the
measures that balance it (increased taxes, lower social security and defense
spending). Americans also tend to be politically uninformed, which makes
complex issues hard for people to form sound opinions on. Opinions on some
issues are so settled that officials will likely not succeed trying to work
against them. The greater the level of public involvement, the likelier the
policy will shift towards public opinion. Leaders have a degree of discretion
on decisive action for the economy. On issues that fail to attract widespread
attention, leaders have considerable room to maneuver. Leaders can influence
public opinion to match their public policy. Over a six-month period, when Bush
pressed for war, public support for war gradually increased. Thus, public
opinion tends to affect policy to a greater degree than policymaker’s
agendas affect public opinion.
VOTER PARTICIPATION
At the nation’s founding, suffrage
was limited to property-owning white males. Women did not get to vote until
1920, from 19th Amendment. African Americans got the right to vote
in the 15th Amendment. Afterwards, poll taxes, whites-only
primaries, rigged literacy tests made it still unequal. In 1971, the 26th
Amendment extended voting rights to include citizens eighteen years of age or
older, where the previous limit was 21.
Factors in Voter Turnout: The United States in Comparative Perspective
Since the 1960s, voter turnout has averaged about 55 percent in
presidential elections. Midterm election turnout has not reached 50% since 1920
and has hovered around 40% in recent decades. In local elections, 20% of
eligible voters participate. Voter participation in the US is lower than in
other countries. Registration began around the 1900s to prevent duplicate votes.
State governments traditionally set registration requirements. Restrictive laws
in the US lead to lower turnout rates compared to European countries. States
with more restrictive laws have lower turnout rates. In 1993, Congress enacted
the motor voter law to allow people to register when applying for a driver’s
license or public assistance. Voter ID laws have been enacted in a few states,
with the example of photo ID requirements decreasing voter turnout especially
for poorer people who can’t afford a passport or driver’s license. American
elections are more frequent than in European nations, which increases the
likelihood that American voters will not vote every time. Elections in the
United States are traditionally held on Tuesday, where Americans would have to
find time outside of work, versus a holiday or weekend day in other countries.
Why Some Americans Vote and
Others Do Not
Education and Income
People who have received higher levels of education and have higher income
have above-average voting rates; these people have the financial resources and
communication skills that encourage participation and make voting rewarding. Europeans
with less income don’t vote as less as Americans with less income; the
difference can be attributed to the United States not having a socialist or
labor party. Americans with less income and education are also adversely affected
by the registration system.
Age
Young adults are much less likely to vote than middle-aged and older
citizens. In the 2004 and 2008 presidential elections, turnout among younger
voters increased substantially, due to many young people opposing the Bush
administration’s conduct of the Iraq War. Older people, who have children and
homes, are also more likely to feel the effects of election outcomes.
Civic Attitudes
Apathy, or a lack of interest in politics, affects
some citizens. Others refrain because of alienation,
the belief that government pays no attention to their interests. Some Americans
have a sense of civic duty, the
belief that they should participate in public affairs. Civic duty and apathy
are both attitudes that are usually acquired from parents. When the Democratic
Party took the lead on civil rights issues in the 1960s, many working-class
white Democrats simply stopped voting instead of switching to the other party.
The four main linkage
institutions are political parties, elections, the media, and interest groups.
POLITICAL PARTIES
Political parties are the means
to achieve “who gets when, what, how, and why”. The nature of the party system
is competitive. A Party must be looked at as on organization, at its
relationship with the electorate, and its role in government.
The Two Parties
Party Eras
The first party era (1828-1860)
constituted of the Democrats dominating the presidency and Congress. The second
period (1860-1932) was the Republican era. The third era (1932-1968)
contributed to the success of the New Deal and was led by the Democrats. The
fourth period (1968-present) has been called the era of divided government:
characterized by one party holding the presidency and an opposition party in
one or both houses of Congress. The 2008 presidential election saw a
short-lived emergence of a one-party rule by the Democrats; this ended with the
2010 midterm elections when the Republicans regained control of the House of
Representatives.
Party Realignment
Party realignment is the shift
of party loyalty. This occurred once in 1932 after the Great Depression, where
the public turned to the New Deal policies of Franklin Roosevelt. Roosevelt’s
New Deal was similar to Kennedy’s New Frontier, and Johnson’s Great Society. The
growth of the federal government and social programs became part of the
Democratic platform.
Period of Divided Government
The Watergate scandal and
Nixon’s resignation in 1974 saw a weakened GOP and the eventual loss by Gerald
Ford to Jimmy Carter in 1976. Reagan attracted a Democratic base of
middle-class workers to his candidacy. From 1981 to 1986 the Republicans were
able to control the Senate. There was an emergence of an ideological party era
with the election of Bill Clinton in 1992. Although Clinton had a democratic
majority in both houses during his first term, passing legislation faced
conflict due to liberals, moderates and conservatives not always voting on
party lines.
Third Parties
Third parties, although knowing
they have virtually no chance of winning, still wage a vocal campaign. Third
political parties are ideological, single-issue oriented, economically
motivated, and personality driven. People gradually moving away from their
parties had become more of a trend in today’s view of party loyalty. Ross Perot
gained 20% of the popular vote in the 1992 election, although he did not get
any electoral votes. In 1996 he ran again with United We Stand but got less
than 10% of the popular vote
Party Dealignment
Party dealignment, or people
gradually moving away from their parties to become independents, has become
more of a trend in today’s view of party loyalty. The shift of traditional
Southern Democrats to the Republican Party came about because many voters
perceived the Republicans as a more conservative party than the Democrats.
The Tea Party
The Tea Party emerged out of
old Republican leaders and successfully defeated many Republican Senators and
Congressmen in primaries. The Tea Party later supported many Republican
gubernatorial and congressional candidates, contributing to the success of the
Republicans in the 2010 midterms. The Tea Party supports lower federal power,
balancing the national budget through spending cuts (“generational theft”),
personal responsibility vs. handouts, and no excessive taxes.
Organization
The role of the party caucus
and party primary has grown in importance. The role of the national convention
is to publicize the party’s position. After the disastrous 1968 Democratic
Convention, the McGovern-Frasier
Commission brought significant representation changes to the party, making
future conventions more democratic. In 1982 another reform was made to make 15%
of the delegates superdelegates,
made up of party leaders and elected party officials. The Republicans made
reforms to regenerate party identification after the 1992 Republican Convention
was said to be dominated by conservatives
The national committee is the governing
body of the political party. It responds to the direction of the national
chairperson. The presidential candidates nominated at the convention select the
national chairperson.
The future is not bright for
political parties. More and more people are calling themselves independents. More
and more ticket splitting (where people don’t vote by party alignment, but for
individual candidates) has taken place. The impact of the media on the campaign
has weakened has weakened the ability of the party to convey its message to the
people. Special interest groups and PACs have reduced the need for elected
officials to use traditional party resources.